REPLY HAZY- TRY AGAIN

REPLY HAZY- TRY AGAIN: Political malahini can't get over how we seem to give our congress-critters (we stole that from somewhere) a lifetime appointment when we first vote them into office.

It's not just the usual American democracy-phobic system whereby incumbents use their power to accumulate daunting war chests, discouraging challenges, but a culturally driven respect for the kupuna paradigm that gives them an edge.

So on the rare occasion when one seat "opens up" it's a free for all with all the rats and vermin deserting whatever ship they're inhabiting to line-up for the move-up.

It just so happens that this year, when the music starts playing there will be at least two if not three extra chairs and everyone and their grandmother seems to be considering circling them.

Our now-open 2nd congressional district seat has, since the death of Patsy Mink, been a place where an also-ran for the senate or 1st CD can land, even despite the fact that they don't live in the district.

But since at least Dan Akaka's senate seat- and, if she decides to join the fray Coleen Hanabusa's 1st CD seat- is empty, the climbers all have their sights set on the grand prize leaving us an opportunity to send someone who actually lives in the district to D.C.

And because of all that-- and more- our own Kaua`i ex-senator Gary Hooser apparently has the inside track should he decide to grab for the brass ring.

The progressive's progressive Hooser's two previous runs for higher office- for US house after Mink's death and for lt. governor last year- were unsuccessful for many reasons.

First was the competition, all of whom are now either running for the senate, like current 2nd CD incumbent Maize Hirono and Ed Case, already in congress, like Hanabusa or otherwise occupied on another track like Lt. Governor Brian Schatz.

It was Schatz who was Hooser's main bugaboo the last two time as they split the progressive vote with Schatz pulling in more votes each time. This time there isn't another real progressive on the horizon giving Hooser the full share of that vote in what has been said to be arguably the most progressive district in the country.

The question is, if not Gary then who?

The other day Adrienne LaFrance of Civil Beat asked that question of a long list of primarily state legislators and Honolulu city councilpersons as well as, of course Hooser.

Hooser seemed interested saying:

"For me, you know my first priority is to serve the governor in the position he's appointed me to (as director of the State Department of Health's Office of Environmental Quality Control). That's really where my attention is right now. The office needs revitalizing and rebuilding and I'm committed to doing that. It's too early and there are too many factors for me to sort out.

"I have gotten calls and emails from a variety of friends and supporters, people who have supported me in the past, encouraging me to consider entering. Many would say that I'm a natural because I ran before. I actually live in the district. Serving in Congress would obviously be a great honor. But, for now, my focus is on rebuilding and revitalizing the OEQC... Definitely not ruling it out, but whether it's right for me and for the state at this time, I don't know yet."

The others are not exactly household names on the neighbor islands except for former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann who might stay out of the senate race if he thinks his wounds from the governor's race are too severe. But those same wounds might make him appear to be damaged goods to 2nd CD voters who were supposed to put him over the top last year but shied away after one too many blunders and a sort of "fed up with Mufi and his dirty politics" attitude reared it's head.

In addition to Hooser's "last man standing" tag- all those who beat him in the other two races being elsewhere occupied- Hooser also has the advantage of a ready made organization on each neighbor island and on the North Shore of O`ahu and, with Schatz out, he can pick up not just votes but progressive political operatives who said they liked Gary but were already committed to Brian.

Then there's the unique nature of the "ending in 2" election of 2012.

Many of those ready to "move up" come from the state senate where they reach the legislative ceiling. And usually when a congressional election comes in the middle year of their four-year term they can run for congress without activating the Hawai`i "resign to run" law, which is inapplicable in federal elections.

But this is reapportionment year. After the census, lines are redrawn and the senate is divided into two year terms and four year terms to maintain staggering and everyone must run meaning no one can run for congress and, if they lose, return to the senate.

Although as LaFrance points out reapportionment might force two members of the legislature into one district making congress tempting, it would take someone who was already predisposed to a congressional run to take advantage of the "crisis equals opportunity" situation.

As far as county pols there are a few high profile Honolulu councilmembers like Chairman Nestor Garcia but he LaFrance quotes him as saying "I'm not considering it now."

And certainly none of the three neighbor island mayors- much less councilmembers- even have the name recognition much less the organization... much less the motivation.

On the other hand Hooser's most successful activity in the lt. governor's race was his "Who Is Gary Hooser" campaign where, reportedly, he spent most of his capital- both political and monetary- last fall.

Another question to ask of potential candidates is whether they have school age kids. A job in Washington may be off the table for many- or at least those who want to keep their marriages intact.

The one big question for Hooser is whether he will give up his job as head of the State Department of Health's Office of Environmental Quality Control to run. He has seemed excited at the prospect of working in the area of his passion as the top environmental enforcer in the state.

But you don't get politics out of your blood that easily and Gary, if he has anything, has the fire in the belly to run again someday.

Is this that someday? Knowing that this kind of opportunity where all things seem to line up in his favor come around once in a lifetime it may just be an opportunity Hooser can't ignore.

SIMPLE MATH

SIMPLE MATH: Despite the fact our butt sits in the second congressional district we’re heard quite a bit from people mistaking us for a Democrat and asking what we thought about Ed Case’s “surprise” decision to drop out of the 1st CD race.

Of course opinions, as they say, are like assholes in that “everyone has one”... or in the case of Case, “has been one”, in the minds of the Dem faithful.

The problem with those opinions across the Hawai`i punditry class is that most of them see themselves as either Democrats or, very occasionally, Republicans including the self-proclaimed “Independents” who tend to be one or the other but are loathe to admit it for obvious reasons.

That seems to cause of the rash of beans-in-the-ear syndrome causing them to have difficulty in listening carefully to Big Ed’s words when he said his heart told him to stay in the September primary race but his head told him to get the hell out.

Getting inside Case’s head isn’t too difficult if you look at his political record.

Few will deny that he’s made his living as a DINO- Dem in name only. But that is a slightly different type of DINO in Hawai`i where there basically isn’t a viable Republican party. That’s not because they have or haven’t done anything wrong politically but because their policies simply don’t appeal to very many in the state- Linda Lingle playing the “exception that proves the rule” role here.

That’s left a big swimming hole for Case swim in over the years as evidenced by the types of races he’s run, going up against the more progressive Dems and gaining weight by sopping up gravy of the right wingers who basically have had nowhere else to go without running off the side of the political plate.

The problem is that that no matter how hard he tries to bring in the votes of the Democratic base to add to those R’s and R leaning independents he keeps coming up a little short.

Until now his “heart” has told him that all he has to do is try a little harder, bring in a little more money and maybe start his campaign a little earlier.

But now he’s faced with the results in black and white- a 40% showing by Charles Djou. Case’s “head”- a head that has been very adept at self-delusion in the past- now tells him that the little puka at the right end of the Democratic Party that has only been there because Republicans have been a joke in the past, is a sign of changing demographics and won’t be there as for him any longer as actual Republicans, even if RINOs, fill it.

That left him with only two choices if he ever hopes to win another race in Hawai`i- either quit the Dems and go over to the dark side or make kissy-face with those he’s royally pissed off over the years.

While R’s often come to the realization that the very R before their name is an albatross necklace they don’t need and would rather switch than fight, we can’t think if a D that became an R in this state and Ed would have to be dumber than we thought to take that kind of plunge off the deep end.

Leaving him only one choice- stop banging his head against the wall and get it over with- kiss Don Dan’s ring and live to fight another day.

It was one thing to go up against the other Dan and lose in a primary- his supporters stayed with him after he lost and he even gained some R support. With Akaka’s easy win in November it assured there were no lasting consequences other than hurt feelings. But this race was quite another thing.

His presence in the race served as bloody food for Audrey 2- no not some kind of clone of Case’s wife of the same name but sustenance for that now thriving Little Shop of Horrors plant Djou, creating a monster even Dr. Frankenstein couldn’t have contemplated (to mix horror movie metaphors).

Giving up a bruising race that he was bound to lose- especially given his distinct lack of ability to juice his war chest during the campaign- in exchange for support in his next endeavor isn’t, as many have said, “courageous” as much as a decision to politically survive a potential second “Djou debacle” that Democrats would blame him for.

Instead his decision to drop out allows Colleen Hanabusa to keep her financial power dry for the inevitable November showdown with Djou, something donors who now don’t have to pay for an additional primary fight may remember in his next race too.

It’s a mistake to think that Ed Case ever was or is “for” anything other than the one he’s always been for- Ed Case. He did the only thing he could, turning a sows ear into a silk purse to boot.

The only thing “surprising” about his decision is that he did something politically astute, hence out of character for the perennial skunk at the Democratic Garden Party.

YOUR MONEY’S NO GOOD HERE

YOUR MONEY’S NO GOOD HERE: We’ve been popping Dramamine since Saturday in order to keep from getting dizzy and heaving from being incessantly spun by the three main candidates in Saturday’s 1st congressional district (CD) election with winner Djou’s and fellow Repugnacan’ts claiming a partisan sea change despite being outpolled by the two Dummocraps combined, Ed Case’s delusional sniveling email about the “dark side of politics” and his contention that he would have won if not for a million bucks in negative ads despite his creepy persona and blue dog credentials in a generally progressive district and Colleen Hanabusa’s disingenuous claim that the “grassroots” put her in second place rather than machinations of the fabled Inouye political apparatus (How’s that for a sentence).

But the results themselves seem to indicate one of two things- either the lemmings didn’t do a cliff dive to abandon Hanabusa for Case in order to try to assure a Dem win as we said might happen almost three weeks ago when the polls came out showing Case leading Hanabusa for second place or, most likely, the polls were wrong.

This is becoming a trend lately with unlisted cell phones and caller-ID-inspired screening and it didn’t help that it’s traditionally hard in Hawai`i to get older voters- especially among Japanese- to declare their preference and thus stay out of the “undecided” column.

Amidst all the post-polling punditry and dissection one factual difference in the way the elections bureau operated during the all-mail election hasn’t been mentioned much and could have really made a difference for Hanabusa and her party’s well oiled and notoriously effective “get out the vote (GOTV)” operation.

Buried deep inside a routine Derrick DePledge Honolulu Advertiser article during the closing days (sorry for the lack of link- just try finding the archives in the 'Tiser these days) was the information that, unlike in other elections, they were not providing lists of those who had voted and who hadn’t so far.

For those who have never seen a well funded party campaign up close- and it’s not just the Dems who do it these days as the ’02 and ‘06 Lingle campaigns will attest- here’s how it works.

Parties have lists of past supporters from other elections, all broken down by demographic info and starting with those lists teams of phone bankers spend their time early in the campaign identifying supporters by basically calling each one and, depending on how much money they have, going out in ever widening circles of possible supporters compiling their own list of “identified supporters” along with undecided “leaners” in their candidate’s direction.

Then, as the election approaches they call back the leaners to try to convince them but more importantly to call back their supporters to encourage them to vote absentee- or in the case of an all mail election to make sure they have voted- or make sure they are able to get to the polls on election day or, if not, offer to provide them with a ride.

Once someone appears on the list of those who have voted they are checked off and the calls end, winnowing down the list to those who haven’t voted for more follow-up calls.

On election day they send out the “poll watchers” to check the lists throughout the day at each polling site to check off those who have voted so the phone backers can make more last minute calls to, as they say, “get out the vote”.

You can see how important those lists are. And although the methodology is a bit different for an all-mail election, if anything the information on who voted and who didn’t can be even more effective in making sure pre-identified supporters send in their ballots if they haven’t already and you don’t waste your time- and therefore money- on those who have voted already.

Widespread press reports indicate that many Hanabusa supporters were angry at the aggressiveness of Hanabusa’s GOTV team, most likely because they had to just keep calling all supporters- even those who had voted- because there was no list available.

Whether the availability of the lists would have put Hanabusa over the top is questionable at best what with a 10% deficit to make up. But it may be a harbinger of a bigger lead going into the Dem primary in late September when she and Case go head to head.

PRETTY RANK

PRETTY RANK: Hear that sound? It’s the roar of poll-addled 1st congregational district Democratic progressives falling over each other to abandon Colleen Hanabusa in favor of Ed Case so as to make sure Republican Charles Djou doesn’t win the special election to place their butts in now gubernatorial candidate Neil Abercrombie’s former U.S. House seat.

Yet apparently most of them are dragging themselves with a knife to their own throats a la Cleavon Little’s “nobody move or the sheriff gets it” scene in Blazing Saddles, bemoaning how they are forced to vote for a pseudo-Democratic DINO because, not just are they good little democrats but due to a series of circumstances that have conspired to force them to acquiesce to their own threats upon themselves.

In case you haven’t seen the polls- and why should you read them if you don’t live in “urban” Honolulu?- two polls, one by local news outlets and another by the Democratic National Committee have shown the two Democrats splitting the vote in the winner-take-all, special-mail-in election show Case with either a six or 14 point lead over Hanabusa respectively.

Even the usually politically astute blogger reporter and sometimes political staffer Ian Lind headlined a piece yesterday entitled 1st District–If Hanabusa can’t win, I would prefer Ed Case over Djou.

The forty comments that followed typify those in other articles and popular political blogs, blaming and bemoaning Neil Abercrombie for resigning, the winner take all election, the outside influences and money and any of a dozen targets.

Even President Obama is playing the game taping a robo-phone-call message that, although it doesn’t specifically mention Case, reminds voters not too subtly that he needs a Democrat in the seat implying “so vote for someone who can win”.

The one target for blame the Democrats leave out is of course themselves.

For many years third party and independent candidates have been given the shaft by the very election laws passed by the duopolists with Democrats and Republicans who can’t agree on anything except the fact that they’ve got a good thing going in playing salugi
with the votes of anyone not willing to play the game by their “heads I win, tails you lose” rules.

It’s not like a solution to the vagaries of plurality-based, on-and-off elections like these congressional fill-ins and “top two” non-partisan elections- the type we have in local elections non-partisan balloting in Hawai`i, where if no one gets 50% in the September “primaries” the top two vote-getters go to a November runoff- hasn’t been suggested to them for many years.

It’s called ranked choice or Instant Runoff Elections (IRV) and while it’s not quite sweeping the nation it’s gaining ground, especially in California where, while the state parties go back and forth between open and closed primaries, it’s the way many local jurisdictions including San Francisco hold their elections.

Here’s how it works in a 100 word explanation we’ve kept filed away for a decade now.

Each voter has one vote, and ranks candidates in order of choice (1, 2, 3, etc.). The counting of ballots simulates a series of run-off elections. All first choices are counted, and if no candidate wins a majority of first choices, then the last place candidate (candidate with the least first-choices) is eliminated. Ballots of voters who ranked the eliminated candidate first then are redistributed to their next-choice candidates, as indicated on each voter’s ballot. Last place candidates are successively eliminated and ballots are redistributed to next choices until one candidate remains or a candidate gains over 50% of votes.

It not only allows the voters to vote for whomever they want without playing the “I’d better go with the crowd to make my vote ‘count’” game- one we gave up years ago refusing to play the “spoiler” game- it allows them instead to pick the candidate they really want to see in office because if their candidate is eliminated their “next best” vote counts, thus avoiding the dizzying self-fulfilling prophesy of bandwagoning.

Is there anyone out there- other than a party boss- who wouldn’t rather vote for the candidate they like most while not having to fear electing the one they like least?

Not only does IRV make for a fairer election it also saves the cost of a top two runoff.

It also has a sister ranked choice system called Single Transferable Voting (STV) which allows for a similar- though a little more complicated-to-compile- ranking system for multiple seat elections such as the seven at large councilmember elections on Kaua`i.

If the Democrats do lose the special 1st CD they will have no one to blame but themselves for ignoring IRV lo these many years until it’s finally come around to bite them in the ass.

And if it does and Republican Djou wins they’ll probably still be pointing fingers rather than using their vast advantage in the legislature and county councils to pass new voting procedures that insure that it’s the voters who determine who wins, not the parties.

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For those who have turned to Peer News’ new Civil Beat and found out you have to shell out $20 bucks a month and a pay pals account to “enter”- although there is a one dollar 15 day trial offer now- and have given up since the “news” articles are unavailable after their official launch yesterday, we’ve got a couple of links to news stories courtesy of former local newspaper reporter extraordinaire Mike Levine who is covering land use there.
Honolulu Civil Beat — First Edition!: http://bit.ly/aaMeoS

Nonprofits Can't Escape GET, Despite "Tax-Exempt" Status: http://bit.ly/aoMFt1

Six Years After Plan, Homeless Problem Even Worse: http://bit.ly/dox96k

Are Honolulu Rail Job Projections On the Right Track?: http://bit.ly/9xBI40

Mike does promise neighbor island news including Kaua`i in the future

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We’re off “on assignment” as they say and will be back Monday.