Showing posts with label Dan Inouye. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dan Inouye. Show all posts
Tuesday, October 4, 2011
THE AGE OF NEFARIOUS/LET THE SUNSHINE IN
THE AGE OF NEFARIOUS/LET THE SUNSHINE IN: When we wrote about a Kaua`i County Council discussion of a potential recommendation to the state legislature to close the loopholes in the law requiring solar hot water heaters on all new homes- loopholes that are disproportionately used to obtain variances on Kaua`i and Hawai`i Island- we thought there wouldn't be much more to say.
But with the matter appearing for final disposition at tomorrow's council meeting we just had to comment on the "funny if it wasn't so sad" session at last week's committee meeting.
It was another example of what money in politics can do to say the least, with the Gas Company and their campaign cash having apparently swayed the council to repeat the mantra of "options" and "choice" ad nauseum.
Of course with all that dough and the testimony of those who are beholden to the GasCo for their livelihood, it wasn't hard to see why councilmembers were sticking to their mantra, even if it really meant it was "dare to be stupid" time.
We knew it wasn't going to be possible to get to the meat of the matter when, during public testimony, the latest council regular, Lonnie Sykos, dared to be smart in suggesting a reason why there is a 50% variance rate on Kaua`i and the Big Island and only 5% on O`ahu and Maui.
He suggested that perhaps changing the state law might be convoluted and time consuming but finding out why Kaua`i is granting all those variances and perhaps correcting whatever we're doing just might be wise.
But much like those proverbially too busy pulling bodies out of the river to go upstream and finding out who was throwing them in, Council Chair Jay Furfaro, as if to say "stop making sense," interrupted Sykos- as he is wont to do when someone says something he doesn't want said- telling him that he was off the subject on the agenda since the matter was listed as pertaining to asking the state to change the law, not finding out why they didn't really need to change the law
But that only foreshadowed events to come that would show who was really in charge of the show.
It started with Ronald Sakoda who, although he said he was speaking only for Ronald Sakoda, is actually the proprietor of Ron's Electric and Sen. Dan Inouye's representative on Kaua`i.
Saying "excuse me if I cry a little" before plopping his sack of crocodile tears on the table, Sakoda anecdotally bemoaned how young people "making the biggest investment of their lives" couldn’t afford the extra money added to their mortgage when they could be using the money for "a new car (or) food for the baby."
So now the solar hot water heater is going to leave us with starving infants.
Now we know, as talking Barbie used to say, "math is haarrd." When we were young we were thinking of majoring in math and if it weren't for the fact that we stunk at basic arithmetic we might have.
It's not out of the realm of possibility that those on the council might have similar problems so let's try to see about this claim that installing solar water heaters on new homes will lead to famished-keiki syndrome.
A new retrofitted solar hot water system costs $8000 according to the list of building permits in Kaua`i Business Report. There are rebates galore and, according to the state Department of Business and Economic Development (DBED) it's also cheaper to install one during construction than to retrofit one.
But let's even use the 8 grand figure.
We took that $8000 and plugged it into a 30 year mortgage since we're supposedly talking not about rich people building million dollar homes, but about a family just starting out that is struggling to make the payments, so is keeping them as low as possible.
When we divide $8000 by 360 months (30 years times 12 months a year) we come up with $22.22 a month. Add another just under three bucks a month for interest (even though the credit union provides interest free loans according to Councilmember JoAnn Yukimura) and you get a final cost of about $25 a month. That's the actual amount one would additionally pay each month for the extra $8000 in cost.
It could be $20 or even lower with the savings cited above but we'll go with $25.
We wanted to know how much gas the average standard water heater uses so we called the Gas Company and asked. We were told that on average people used 3/4 of a gallon of "gas" per day. We were also told that gas- actually propane- costs $6.56 a gallon.
So when you "do the math" that comes out to a whopping $147.60 a month- we know, that seems high to us too- for a plain gas water heater.
Now the standard figure from DBED is that a solar heater on average will provide only about 80% of the hot water needed. So take 20% off the $147.60 and you wind up with a real figure of $118.12.
So the choice is between paying about $25 bucks- and don’t forget that's an inflated figure due to rebates, the savings of not having to retrofit and the interest-free loan- and paying $118.12 a month, giving baby an extra $93.12 to spend on Similac and Gerbers.
Next was a presentation from Richard Degarmel of the Gas Company who presented a totally baffling "Cost Guard study" claiming costs were much lower than a similar DBED study suggested.
The problem was the study compared a solar system supplemented by an electric water heater and one of those "on-demand" systems rather than comparing it with a solar system supplemented by a gas heater.
This wasn't just comparing apples and oranges. It wasn't even comparing oranges and tennis balls. It was more like comparing shoe horns and rocking chairs, being that neither item really mattered to someone looking for the lowest cost to heat their water.
The fact that no one on the council seemed to "get" is that no matter what kind of water heater you're using- electric, standard gas or on-demand gas- you will save money, even month by month, by supplementing it with a solar system.
Whether or not the eyes of councilmembers were clouded by the fact that the recommendation was opposed by the deep pockets at the Chamber of Commerce, the Kaua`i Developers Council, the Contractor’s Association of Kaua`i and 99 others who provided written testimony, is a matter for speculation.
But it does seem odd that the council couldn't do the basic math to determine the savings of a solar hot water installation over not having one, but when counting up the numbers of those who butter their bread, their arithmetic is apparently impeccable.
-----
Correction: The Hawai`i Tribune Herald is not "the only union shop in the islands" as we wrote yesterday. According to Ian Lind:
The Tribune-Herald is the only union newspaper on Hawaii Island, but not the only one in the state. Reporters at the Star-Advertiser and Maui News are also represented by the Pacific Media Workers Guild, which took over from the Hawaii Newspaper Guild, and printers at the S-A are also unionized. I don't know about the Maui News.
We apologize for the error.
But with the matter appearing for final disposition at tomorrow's council meeting we just had to comment on the "funny if it wasn't so sad" session at last week's committee meeting.
It was another example of what money in politics can do to say the least, with the Gas Company and their campaign cash having apparently swayed the council to repeat the mantra of "options" and "choice" ad nauseum.
Of course with all that dough and the testimony of those who are beholden to the GasCo for their livelihood, it wasn't hard to see why councilmembers were sticking to their mantra, even if it really meant it was "dare to be stupid" time.
We knew it wasn't going to be possible to get to the meat of the matter when, during public testimony, the latest council regular, Lonnie Sykos, dared to be smart in suggesting a reason why there is a 50% variance rate on Kaua`i and the Big Island and only 5% on O`ahu and Maui.
He suggested that perhaps changing the state law might be convoluted and time consuming but finding out why Kaua`i is granting all those variances and perhaps correcting whatever we're doing just might be wise.
But much like those proverbially too busy pulling bodies out of the river to go upstream and finding out who was throwing them in, Council Chair Jay Furfaro, as if to say "stop making sense," interrupted Sykos- as he is wont to do when someone says something he doesn't want said- telling him that he was off the subject on the agenda since the matter was listed as pertaining to asking the state to change the law, not finding out why they didn't really need to change the law
But that only foreshadowed events to come that would show who was really in charge of the show.
It started with Ronald Sakoda who, although he said he was speaking only for Ronald Sakoda, is actually the proprietor of Ron's Electric and Sen. Dan Inouye's representative on Kaua`i.
Saying "excuse me if I cry a little" before plopping his sack of crocodile tears on the table, Sakoda anecdotally bemoaned how young people "making the biggest investment of their lives" couldn’t afford the extra money added to their mortgage when they could be using the money for "a new car (or) food for the baby."
So now the solar hot water heater is going to leave us with starving infants.
Now we know, as talking Barbie used to say, "math is haarrd." When we were young we were thinking of majoring in math and if it weren't for the fact that we stunk at basic arithmetic we might have.
It's not out of the realm of possibility that those on the council might have similar problems so let's try to see about this claim that installing solar water heaters on new homes will lead to famished-keiki syndrome.
A new retrofitted solar hot water system costs $8000 according to the list of building permits in Kaua`i Business Report. There are rebates galore and, according to the state Department of Business and Economic Development (DBED) it's also cheaper to install one during construction than to retrofit one.
But let's even use the 8 grand figure.
We took that $8000 and plugged it into a 30 year mortgage since we're supposedly talking not about rich people building million dollar homes, but about a family just starting out that is struggling to make the payments, so is keeping them as low as possible.
When we divide $8000 by 360 months (30 years times 12 months a year) we come up with $22.22 a month. Add another just under three bucks a month for interest (even though the credit union provides interest free loans according to Councilmember JoAnn Yukimura) and you get a final cost of about $25 a month. That's the actual amount one would additionally pay each month for the extra $8000 in cost.
It could be $20 or even lower with the savings cited above but we'll go with $25.
We wanted to know how much gas the average standard water heater uses so we called the Gas Company and asked. We were told that on average people used 3/4 of a gallon of "gas" per day. We were also told that gas- actually propane- costs $6.56 a gallon.
So when you "do the math" that comes out to a whopping $147.60 a month- we know, that seems high to us too- for a plain gas water heater.
Now the standard figure from DBED is that a solar heater on average will provide only about 80% of the hot water needed. So take 20% off the $147.60 and you wind up with a real figure of $118.12.
So the choice is between paying about $25 bucks- and don’t forget that's an inflated figure due to rebates, the savings of not having to retrofit and the interest-free loan- and paying $118.12 a month, giving baby an extra $93.12 to spend on Similac and Gerbers.
Next was a presentation from Richard Degarmel of the Gas Company who presented a totally baffling "Cost Guard study" claiming costs were much lower than a similar DBED study suggested.
The problem was the study compared a solar system supplemented by an electric water heater and one of those "on-demand" systems rather than comparing it with a solar system supplemented by a gas heater.
This wasn't just comparing apples and oranges. It wasn't even comparing oranges and tennis balls. It was more like comparing shoe horns and rocking chairs, being that neither item really mattered to someone looking for the lowest cost to heat their water.
The fact that no one on the council seemed to "get" is that no matter what kind of water heater you're using- electric, standard gas or on-demand gas- you will save money, even month by month, by supplementing it with a solar system.
Whether or not the eyes of councilmembers were clouded by the fact that the recommendation was opposed by the deep pockets at the Chamber of Commerce, the Kaua`i Developers Council, the Contractor’s Association of Kaua`i and 99 others who provided written testimony, is a matter for speculation.
But it does seem odd that the council couldn't do the basic math to determine the savings of a solar hot water installation over not having one, but when counting up the numbers of those who butter their bread, their arithmetic is apparently impeccable.
-----
Correction: The Hawai`i Tribune Herald is not "the only union shop in the islands" as we wrote yesterday. According to Ian Lind:
The Tribune-Herald is the only union newspaper on Hawaii Island, but not the only one in the state. Reporters at the Star-Advertiser and Maui News are also represented by the Pacific Media Workers Guild, which took over from the Hawaii Newspaper Guild, and printers at the S-A are also unionized. I don't know about the Maui News.
We apologize for the error.
Thursday, October 14, 2010
VOTE FOR GREEN PARTY’S JIM BREWER FOR US SENATE.
VOTE FOR GREEN PARTY’S JIM BREWER FOR US SENATE
We are proud to enthusiastically and unreservedly support Jim Brewer, Green Party candidate for US Senate.
Brewer has worked for years for single-payer “Medicare for all” type healthcare reform and opposed the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and, as with all Green candidates, his views generally reflect the Green Party’s platform and 10 Key Values.
He not just provides an alternative to war-criminal and leader of the genocide against the Kanaka Maoli (native Hawaiians), Senator Dan Inouye, but if elected would actually bring to fruition the true progressive values to which many Democrats give lip service but rarely if ever “walk the talk”.
Inouye has long been a key cog in the U.S. war machine by funding the military industrial complex and, through his support for the Akaka bill and theft of Kanaka lands for the country’s military dirty work, seeks to steal what’s left of Hawaiian lands “one last time fair and square”.
While we have few illusions that Brewer will break though the duopolistic hold on electoral politics he provides us all a chance to vote ‘for” someone rather than just “against” the greater of two evils as many feel forced to do in just about every election this year.
Please join us in voting to send Jim Brewer to Washington D.C. this November 2.
We are proud to enthusiastically and unreservedly support Jim Brewer, Green Party candidate for US Senate.
Brewer has worked for years for single-payer “Medicare for all” type healthcare reform and opposed the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and, as with all Green candidates, his views generally reflect the Green Party’s platform and 10 Key Values.
He not just provides an alternative to war-criminal and leader of the genocide against the Kanaka Maoli (native Hawaiians), Senator Dan Inouye, but if elected would actually bring to fruition the true progressive values to which many Democrats give lip service but rarely if ever “walk the talk”.
Inouye has long been a key cog in the U.S. war machine by funding the military industrial complex and, through his support for the Akaka bill and theft of Kanaka lands for the country’s military dirty work, seeks to steal what’s left of Hawaiian lands “one last time fair and square”.
While we have few illusions that Brewer will break though the duopolistic hold on electoral politics he provides us all a chance to vote ‘for” someone rather than just “against” the greater of two evils as many feel forced to do in just about every election this year.
Please join us in voting to send Jim Brewer to Washington D.C. this November 2.
Thursday, September 2, 2010
DON’T VOTE FOR TOKIOKA, SAGUM OR KOUCHI FOR STATE LEGISLATURE OR INOUYE FOR US SENATE
DON’T VOTE FOR TOKIOKA, SAGUM OR KOUCHI FOR STATE LEGISLATURE OR INOUYE FOR US SENATE
(PNN) -- Jimmy Tokioka (State House 15th), Roland Sagum (State House 16th), Ron Kouchi (State Senate 7th) and Daniel Inouye (US Senate) are some of the most objectionable reprehensible people on the Kaua`i ballot and we urge voters to vote for their opponents in the Democratic Primary September 18.
While their opponents- Rhoda Libre (House 14th) Dee Morikawa (House 15th) John Sydney Yamane (Senate 7th) and Andy Woerner (US Senate)- are unknown quantities and we can’t really say they would support the issues we hold dear or be great legislators but they certainly cannot be or do any worse.
Tokioka- a former Republican councilmember who opportunistically switched parties when he ran for the legislature- is a racist philanderer who has been a thorn in the side of the controlled growth, progressive community for more than a decade. Among his other offenses at the legislature was his obstinate opposition to civil rights during the civil unions debacle.
Sagum is a developer who also opposed civil unions and recently even represented the owner of infamous north shore mansion “farm dwelling” before the planning commissions.
Kouchi has had a long history on the council, leading the land-rape efforts during the 90’s- before acknowledging his shameful actions, claiming he had “reformed” when he ran for mayor- then moving on to represent the latest developer of the old Westin property in a huge zoning giveaway disguised as a gift of un-developable coastal land to the county.
Inouye, the old war monger, needs no introduction to those who have opposed his single handed militaristic buildup in Hawai`i for many decades. He’s been a mainstay in the theft of Hawaiian lands for generations and a key cog in the genocide. Twenty years ago he led the Democratic effort in the senate to ignore Ronald Reagan’s Iran contra involvement.
Libre, Morikawa, Yamane and Woerner have given us a choice. Let’s take advantage of it.
(PNN) -- Jimmy Tokioka (State House 15th), Roland Sagum (State House 16th), Ron Kouchi (State Senate 7th) and Daniel Inouye (US Senate) are some of the most objectionable reprehensible people on the Kaua`i ballot and we urge voters to vote for their opponents in the Democratic Primary September 18.
While their opponents- Rhoda Libre (House 14th) Dee Morikawa (House 15th) John Sydney Yamane (Senate 7th) and Andy Woerner (US Senate)- are unknown quantities and we can’t really say they would support the issues we hold dear or be great legislators but they certainly cannot be or do any worse.
Tokioka- a former Republican councilmember who opportunistically switched parties when he ran for the legislature- is a racist philanderer who has been a thorn in the side of the controlled growth, progressive community for more than a decade. Among his other offenses at the legislature was his obstinate opposition to civil rights during the civil unions debacle.
Sagum is a developer who also opposed civil unions and recently even represented the owner of infamous north shore mansion “farm dwelling” before the planning commissions.
Kouchi has had a long history on the council, leading the land-rape efforts during the 90’s- before acknowledging his shameful actions, claiming he had “reformed” when he ran for mayor- then moving on to represent the latest developer of the old Westin property in a huge zoning giveaway disguised as a gift of un-developable coastal land to the county.
Inouye, the old war monger, needs no introduction to those who have opposed his single handed militaristic buildup in Hawai`i for many decades. He’s been a mainstay in the theft of Hawaiian lands for generations and a key cog in the genocide. Twenty years ago he led the Democratic effort in the senate to ignore Ronald Reagan’s Iran contra involvement.
Libre, Morikawa, Yamane and Woerner have given us a choice. Let’s take advantage of it.
Tuesday, June 1, 2010
SIMPLE MATH
SIMPLE MATH: Despite the fact our butt sits in the second congressional district we’re heard quite a bit from people mistaking us for a Democrat and asking what we thought about Ed Case’s “surprise” decision to drop out of the 1st CD race.
Of course opinions, as they say, are like assholes in that “everyone has one”... or in the case of Case, “has been one”, in the minds of the Dem faithful.
The problem with those opinions across the Hawai`i punditry class is that most of them see themselves as either Democrats or, very occasionally, Republicans including the self-proclaimed “Independents” who tend to be one or the other but are loathe to admit it for obvious reasons.
That seems to cause of the rash of beans-in-the-ear syndrome causing them to have difficulty in listening carefully to Big Ed’s words when he said his heart told him to stay in the September primary race but his head told him to get the hell out.
Getting inside Case’s head isn’t too difficult if you look at his political record.
Few will deny that he’s made his living as a DINO- Dem in name only. But that is a slightly different type of DINO in Hawai`i where there basically isn’t a viable Republican party. That’s not because they have or haven’t done anything wrong politically but because their policies simply don’t appeal to very many in the state- Linda Lingle playing the “exception that proves the rule” role here.
That’s left a big swimming hole for Case swim in over the years as evidenced by the types of races he’s run, going up against the more progressive Dems and gaining weight by sopping up gravy of the right wingers who basically have had nowhere else to go without running off the side of the political plate.
The problem is that that no matter how hard he tries to bring in the votes of the Democratic base to add to those R’s and R leaning independents he keeps coming up a little short.
Until now his “heart” has told him that all he has to do is try a little harder, bring in a little more money and maybe start his campaign a little earlier.
But now he’s faced with the results in black and white- a 40% showing by Charles Djou. Case’s “head”- a head that has been very adept at self-delusion in the past- now tells him that the little puka at the right end of the Democratic Party that has only been there because Republicans have been a joke in the past, is a sign of changing demographics and won’t be there as for him any longer as actual Republicans, even if RINOs, fill it.
That left him with only two choices if he ever hopes to win another race in Hawai`i- either quit the Dems and go over to the dark side or make kissy-face with those he’s royally pissed off over the years.
While R’s often come to the realization that the very R before their name is an albatross necklace they don’t need and would rather switch than fight, we can’t think if a D that became an R in this state and Ed would have to be dumber than we thought to take that kind of plunge off the deep end.
Leaving him only one choice- stop banging his head against the wall and get it over with- kiss Don Dan’s ring and live to fight another day.
It was one thing to go up against the other Dan and lose in a primary- his supporters stayed with him after he lost and he even gained some R support. With Akaka’s easy win in November it assured there were no lasting consequences other than hurt feelings. But this race was quite another thing.
His presence in the race served as bloody food for Audrey 2- no not some kind of clone of Case’s wife of the same name but sustenance for that now thriving Little Shop of Horrors plant Djou, creating a monster even Dr. Frankenstein couldn’t have contemplated (to mix horror movie metaphors).
Giving up a bruising race that he was bound to lose- especially given his distinct lack of ability to juice his war chest during the campaign- in exchange for support in his next endeavor isn’t, as many have said, “courageous” as much as a decision to politically survive a potential second “Djou debacle” that Democrats would blame him for.
Instead his decision to drop out allows Colleen Hanabusa to keep her financial power dry for the inevitable November showdown with Djou, something donors who now don’t have to pay for an additional primary fight may remember in his next race too.
It’s a mistake to think that Ed Case ever was or is “for” anything other than the one he’s always been for- Ed Case. He did the only thing he could, turning a sows ear into a silk purse to boot.
The only thing “surprising” about his decision is that he did something politically astute, hence out of character for the perennial skunk at the Democratic Garden Party.
Of course opinions, as they say, are like assholes in that “everyone has one”... or in the case of Case, “has been one”, in the minds of the Dem faithful.
The problem with those opinions across the Hawai`i punditry class is that most of them see themselves as either Democrats or, very occasionally, Republicans including the self-proclaimed “Independents” who tend to be one or the other but are loathe to admit it for obvious reasons.
That seems to cause of the rash of beans-in-the-ear syndrome causing them to have difficulty in listening carefully to Big Ed’s words when he said his heart told him to stay in the September primary race but his head told him to get the hell out.
Getting inside Case’s head isn’t too difficult if you look at his political record.
Few will deny that he’s made his living as a DINO- Dem in name only. But that is a slightly different type of DINO in Hawai`i where there basically isn’t a viable Republican party. That’s not because they have or haven’t done anything wrong politically but because their policies simply don’t appeal to very many in the state- Linda Lingle playing the “exception that proves the rule” role here.
That’s left a big swimming hole for Case swim in over the years as evidenced by the types of races he’s run, going up against the more progressive Dems and gaining weight by sopping up gravy of the right wingers who basically have had nowhere else to go without running off the side of the political plate.
The problem is that that no matter how hard he tries to bring in the votes of the Democratic base to add to those R’s and R leaning independents he keeps coming up a little short.
Until now his “heart” has told him that all he has to do is try a little harder, bring in a little more money and maybe start his campaign a little earlier.
But now he’s faced with the results in black and white- a 40% showing by Charles Djou. Case’s “head”- a head that has been very adept at self-delusion in the past- now tells him that the little puka at the right end of the Democratic Party that has only been there because Republicans have been a joke in the past, is a sign of changing demographics and won’t be there as for him any longer as actual Republicans, even if RINOs, fill it.
That left him with only two choices if he ever hopes to win another race in Hawai`i- either quit the Dems and go over to the dark side or make kissy-face with those he’s royally pissed off over the years.
While R’s often come to the realization that the very R before their name is an albatross necklace they don’t need and would rather switch than fight, we can’t think if a D that became an R in this state and Ed would have to be dumber than we thought to take that kind of plunge off the deep end.
Leaving him only one choice- stop banging his head against the wall and get it over with- kiss Don Dan’s ring and live to fight another day.
It was one thing to go up against the other Dan and lose in a primary- his supporters stayed with him after he lost and he even gained some R support. With Akaka’s easy win in November it assured there were no lasting consequences other than hurt feelings. But this race was quite another thing.
His presence in the race served as bloody food for Audrey 2- no not some kind of clone of Case’s wife of the same name but sustenance for that now thriving Little Shop of Horrors plant Djou, creating a monster even Dr. Frankenstein couldn’t have contemplated (to mix horror movie metaphors).
Giving up a bruising race that he was bound to lose- especially given his distinct lack of ability to juice his war chest during the campaign- in exchange for support in his next endeavor isn’t, as many have said, “courageous” as much as a decision to politically survive a potential second “Djou debacle” that Democrats would blame him for.
Instead his decision to drop out allows Colleen Hanabusa to keep her financial power dry for the inevitable November showdown with Djou, something donors who now don’t have to pay for an additional primary fight may remember in his next race too.
It’s a mistake to think that Ed Case ever was or is “for” anything other than the one he’s always been for- Ed Case. He did the only thing he could, turning a sows ear into a silk purse to boot.
The only thing “surprising” about his decision is that he did something politically astute, hence out of character for the perennial skunk at the Democratic Garden Party.
Labels:
2010 Election,
Colleen Hanabusa,
Dan Inouye,
Democrats,
Ed Case,
Republicans
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
YOUR MONEY’S NO GOOD HERE
YOUR MONEY’S NO GOOD HERE: We’ve been popping Dramamine since Saturday in order to keep from getting dizzy and heaving from being incessantly spun by the three main candidates in Saturday’s 1st congressional district (CD) election with winner Djou’s and fellow Repugnacan’ts claiming a partisan sea change despite being outpolled by the two Dummocraps combined, Ed Case’s delusional sniveling email about the “dark side of politics” and his contention that he would have won if not for a million bucks in negative ads despite his creepy persona and blue dog credentials in a generally progressive district and Colleen Hanabusa’s disingenuous claim that the “grassroots” put her in second place rather than machinations of the fabled Inouye political apparatus (How’s that for a sentence).
But the results themselves seem to indicate one of two things- either the lemmings didn’t do a cliff dive to abandon Hanabusa for Case in order to try to assure a Dem win as we said might happen almost three weeks ago when the polls came out showing Case leading Hanabusa for second place or, most likely, the polls were wrong.
This is becoming a trend lately with unlisted cell phones and caller-ID-inspired screening and it didn’t help that it’s traditionally hard in Hawai`i to get older voters- especially among Japanese- to declare their preference and thus stay out of the “undecided” column.
Amidst all the post-polling punditry and dissection one factual difference in the way the elections bureau operated during the all-mail election hasn’t been mentioned much and could have really made a difference for Hanabusa and her party’s well oiled and notoriously effective “get out the vote (GOTV)” operation.
Buried deep inside a routine Derrick DePledge Honolulu Advertiser article during the closing days (sorry for the lack of link- just try finding the archives in the 'Tiser these days) was the information that, unlike in other elections, they were not providing lists of those who had voted and who hadn’t so far.
For those who have never seen a well funded party campaign up close- and it’s not just the Dems who do it these days as the ’02 and ‘06 Lingle campaigns will attest- here’s how it works.
Parties have lists of past supporters from other elections, all broken down by demographic info and starting with those lists teams of phone bankers spend their time early in the campaign identifying supporters by basically calling each one and, depending on how much money they have, going out in ever widening circles of possible supporters compiling their own list of “identified supporters” along with undecided “leaners” in their candidate’s direction.
Then, as the election approaches they call back the leaners to try to convince them but more importantly to call back their supporters to encourage them to vote absentee- or in the case of an all mail election to make sure they have voted- or make sure they are able to get to the polls on election day or, if not, offer to provide them with a ride.
Once someone appears on the list of those who have voted they are checked off and the calls end, winnowing down the list to those who haven’t voted for more follow-up calls.
On election day they send out the “poll watchers” to check the lists throughout the day at each polling site to check off those who have voted so the phone backers can make more last minute calls to, as they say, “get out the vote”.
You can see how important those lists are. And although the methodology is a bit different for an all-mail election, if anything the information on who voted and who didn’t can be even more effective in making sure pre-identified supporters send in their ballots if they haven’t already and you don’t waste your time- and therefore money- on those who have voted already.
Widespread press reports indicate that many Hanabusa supporters were angry at the aggressiveness of Hanabusa’s GOTV team, most likely because they had to just keep calling all supporters- even those who had voted- because there was no list available.
Whether the availability of the lists would have put Hanabusa over the top is questionable at best what with a 10% deficit to make up. But it may be a harbinger of a bigger lead going into the Dem primary in late September when she and Case go head to head.
But the results themselves seem to indicate one of two things- either the lemmings didn’t do a cliff dive to abandon Hanabusa for Case in order to try to assure a Dem win as we said might happen almost three weeks ago when the polls came out showing Case leading Hanabusa for second place or, most likely, the polls were wrong.
This is becoming a trend lately with unlisted cell phones and caller-ID-inspired screening and it didn’t help that it’s traditionally hard in Hawai`i to get older voters- especially among Japanese- to declare their preference and thus stay out of the “undecided” column.
Amidst all the post-polling punditry and dissection one factual difference in the way the elections bureau operated during the all-mail election hasn’t been mentioned much and could have really made a difference for Hanabusa and her party’s well oiled and notoriously effective “get out the vote (GOTV)” operation.
Buried deep inside a routine Derrick DePledge Honolulu Advertiser article during the closing days (sorry for the lack of link- just try finding the archives in the 'Tiser these days) was the information that, unlike in other elections, they were not providing lists of those who had voted and who hadn’t so far.
For those who have never seen a well funded party campaign up close- and it’s not just the Dems who do it these days as the ’02 and ‘06 Lingle campaigns will attest- here’s how it works.
Parties have lists of past supporters from other elections, all broken down by demographic info and starting with those lists teams of phone bankers spend their time early in the campaign identifying supporters by basically calling each one and, depending on how much money they have, going out in ever widening circles of possible supporters compiling their own list of “identified supporters” along with undecided “leaners” in their candidate’s direction.
Then, as the election approaches they call back the leaners to try to convince them but more importantly to call back their supporters to encourage them to vote absentee- or in the case of an all mail election to make sure they have voted- or make sure they are able to get to the polls on election day or, if not, offer to provide them with a ride.
Once someone appears on the list of those who have voted they are checked off and the calls end, winnowing down the list to those who haven’t voted for more follow-up calls.
On election day they send out the “poll watchers” to check the lists throughout the day at each polling site to check off those who have voted so the phone backers can make more last minute calls to, as they say, “get out the vote”.
You can see how important those lists are. And although the methodology is a bit different for an all-mail election, if anything the information on who voted and who didn’t can be even more effective in making sure pre-identified supporters send in their ballots if they haven’t already and you don’t waste your time- and therefore money- on those who have voted already.
Widespread press reports indicate that many Hanabusa supporters were angry at the aggressiveness of Hanabusa’s GOTV team, most likely because they had to just keep calling all supporters- even those who had voted- because there was no list available.
Whether the availability of the lists would have put Hanabusa over the top is questionable at best what with a 10% deficit to make up. But it may be a harbinger of a bigger lead going into the Dem primary in late September when she and Case go head to head.
Labels:
2010 Election,
Charles Djou,
Colleen Hanabusa,
Dan Inouye,
Democrats,
Ed Case,
Republicans
Friday, December 5, 2008
(PNN/gw?) ABERCROMBIE : “I WILL BE RUNNING FOR GOVERNOR”
CIRCLING THE SEAT: PNN has learned that Congressman Neil Abercrombie has told Democratic leaders that in fact he will run for Governor in 2010.
According to sources close to Abercrombie he has been telling party leaders “I will be running for governor in 2010“.
One source who asked not to be identified because the announcement should come from Abercrombie himself said that the congressman, with prodding from his family feels it is time for him to “come back home” after turning 70 in June.
Speculation in the press has focused on what will happen in the various musical chairs scenarios that will no doubt commence with Abercrombie’s official announcement.
Also up for reelection in ‘10 is Senator Dan Inouye who, many believe will seek another term despite the fact that he will be 86 at the time but so far there’s been no announcement.
So as the beguine begins the list of suitors spocking out the various available chairs is growing by the day.
Former 2nd Congressional District (CD) Congressman Ed Case has sent out a rather strange email in the last few days asking recipients to recommend which office he should seek two years hence- governor or congress- saying he will support Inouye’s reelection in ’10.
Senate President Colleen Hanabusa is also said to be looking for new environs although Abercrombie’s decision could influence her reported interest in the gubernatorial race.
And of course there’s the always-running-for-something Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannamann. While he would have to resign to run for Governor he could run for congress without giving up his current digs.
While most of the speculation on the Mufster’s future has centered on an office on the 5th floor of the capitol, he might see the open congressional seat as an opportunity without a downside should he lose.
And on the Republican side there’s no dearth of ambitious “against all odds” candidates beginning with Governor Linda Lingle who’s pretty much played out any popularity she might have enjoyed six years ago.
Lingle has been mentioned often as a Republican opponent for Inouye’s seat but even though it’s probably pure delusion on her part to think that with her plummeting popularity she could win any race at this point, she may believe that running for an open congressional seat- against the winner of what promises to be a bloody battle in the Democratic primaries- might make more sense,
And the always comical Charles Djou, a Honolulu Councilman know for his somewhat bizarre manner and penchant for self aggrandizement who has already announced his probable losing run for Abercrombie’s seat.
Last and least of course there’s Lt. Governor Duke Aiona who has been running for governor for six years now with his right-wing-nut religious agenda. He gives whomever the Democrats nominate an almost free pass to Washington Place.
But these Honolulu habitants seem unaware that no matter what their support at home may be, half the state’s population not only doesn’t live “in town” and if their names are known at all out here in the boonies it’s because they are so roundly disliked.
That may be the reason why one name being thrown about now about is none other than Kaua`i Senator Gary Hooser.
As Honolulu Advertiser columnist and blogger Dave Shapiro told us in yesterday’s blog post on the “2010 political follies” notes: .
Hooser is running a banner ad on an online news site asking readers “Who is Gary Hooser?” and “What are his core values?” and inviting them to “Click here to watch The Gary Hooser Story.” But when you click through to his Web site, all you get is a teaser that it’s “coming soon” on Dec. 5.
If Hooser is making a big effort to increase his visibility, you have to assume he’s also got his eye on governor, lieutenant governor or Congress.
So we dialed up the always available Hooser- the only elected official we know of who widely circulates his personal cell phone number and urges people to call any time- to find out about his plans.
Hooser told us that his prime interest is in serving the 7th State Senate District but feels that perhaps there are future opportunities for him to serve out there and though he has no plans to leave the job he loves representing Kaua`i and Ni`ihau, he would like to have people in the state outside of Kaua`i know more about him and see what develops.
Hooser could run for either senate or congress in 2010 without giving up his seat to run although a lieutenant governor run would require him to “resign to run”. Hooser has said in the past that his passion is in legislative affairs far more than administrative.
The fact is that Hooser is wildly popular on the Garden Isle and when it comes to representation in Washington D.C we neighbor islanders haven’t had one of our own in congress since Patsy Mink.
And while the rest of the pack may have a tough time with their negative images among neighbor islanders Hooser biggest problem with culling the votes of city dwellers may be name recognition alone.
Hooser’s biggest obstacle is probably that not many outside Kaua`i know the answer to the question “Who is Gary Hooser/” although as Senate Majority Leader many who follow politics know not just his name but his reputation as a well-liked progressive legislator who’s not afraid to stand up for his constituents and to the special interests, even within his own party.
Abercrombie seems a shoo-in for the Democratic gubernatorial nominee and therefore governor at this point.
Hanabusa has a disproportionate and distorted image of her popularity outside her district and is blamed for quite a few fiascos and capitulations to special interests as Senate President.
And Case is a perennial primary loser known as a “DINO”- Democrat in Name Only- which may put him out of the running should he go up against Abercrombie, Hamabusa or Hannamann in a state-wide Democratic primary.
Maize Hirono, the current 2nd CD representative, like Case is from Honolulu and won the seat with less than 25% of the vote in the wild non-partisan special election that followed Case’s resignation to run against Sen. Dan Akaka in ‘06. And she faced no real opposition in her reelection campaign this year.
While it’s doubtful Hooser would take on a sitting congresswoman in his own party it’s certainly not out of the question. Hooser originally won election to the state Senate by taking on a Democratic incumbent, Jonathan Chun, in 2002.
The question that must be asked now is whether Hirono might run for Abercrombie’s urban 1st CD – the district where she grew up and actually resides.
Should that happen Hooser’s attempt to let voters know “Who is Gary Hooser?” might, in hindsight be an appropriate move- one that could bring real neighbor island representation to U.S. Congress for the first time in a long time.
According to sources close to Abercrombie he has been telling party leaders “I will be running for governor in 2010“.
One source who asked not to be identified because the announcement should come from Abercrombie himself said that the congressman, with prodding from his family feels it is time for him to “come back home” after turning 70 in June.
Speculation in the press has focused on what will happen in the various musical chairs scenarios that will no doubt commence with Abercrombie’s official announcement.
Also up for reelection in ‘10 is Senator Dan Inouye who, many believe will seek another term despite the fact that he will be 86 at the time but so far there’s been no announcement.
So as the beguine begins the list of suitors spocking out the various available chairs is growing by the day.
Former 2nd Congressional District (CD) Congressman Ed Case has sent out a rather strange email in the last few days asking recipients to recommend which office he should seek two years hence- governor or congress- saying he will support Inouye’s reelection in ’10.
Senate President Colleen Hanabusa is also said to be looking for new environs although Abercrombie’s decision could influence her reported interest in the gubernatorial race.
And of course there’s the always-running-for-something Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannamann. While he would have to resign to run for Governor he could run for congress without giving up his current digs.
While most of the speculation on the Mufster’s future has centered on an office on the 5th floor of the capitol, he might see the open congressional seat as an opportunity without a downside should he lose.
And on the Republican side there’s no dearth of ambitious “against all odds” candidates beginning with Governor Linda Lingle who’s pretty much played out any popularity she might have enjoyed six years ago.
Lingle has been mentioned often as a Republican opponent for Inouye’s seat but even though it’s probably pure delusion on her part to think that with her plummeting popularity she could win any race at this point, she may believe that running for an open congressional seat- against the winner of what promises to be a bloody battle in the Democratic primaries- might make more sense,
And the always comical Charles Djou, a Honolulu Councilman know for his somewhat bizarre manner and penchant for self aggrandizement who has already announced his probable losing run for Abercrombie’s seat.
Last and least of course there’s Lt. Governor Duke Aiona who has been running for governor for six years now with his right-wing-nut religious agenda. He gives whomever the Democrats nominate an almost free pass to Washington Place.
But these Honolulu habitants seem unaware that no matter what their support at home may be, half the state’s population not only doesn’t live “in town” and if their names are known at all out here in the boonies it’s because they are so roundly disliked.
That may be the reason why one name being thrown about now about is none other than Kaua`i Senator Gary Hooser.
As Honolulu Advertiser columnist and blogger Dave Shapiro told us in yesterday’s blog post on the “2010 political follies” notes: .
Hooser is running a banner ad on an online news site asking readers “Who is Gary Hooser?” and “What are his core values?” and inviting them to “Click here to watch The Gary Hooser Story.” But when you click through to his Web site, all you get is a teaser that it’s “coming soon” on Dec. 5.
If Hooser is making a big effort to increase his visibility, you have to assume he’s also got his eye on governor, lieutenant governor or Congress.
So we dialed up the always available Hooser- the only elected official we know of who widely circulates his personal cell phone number and urges people to call any time- to find out about his plans.
Hooser told us that his prime interest is in serving the 7th State Senate District but feels that perhaps there are future opportunities for him to serve out there and though he has no plans to leave the job he loves representing Kaua`i and Ni`ihau, he would like to have people in the state outside of Kaua`i know more about him and see what develops.
Hooser could run for either senate or congress in 2010 without giving up his seat to run although a lieutenant governor run would require him to “resign to run”. Hooser has said in the past that his passion is in legislative affairs far more than administrative.
The fact is that Hooser is wildly popular on the Garden Isle and when it comes to representation in Washington D.C we neighbor islanders haven’t had one of our own in congress since Patsy Mink.
And while the rest of the pack may have a tough time with their negative images among neighbor islanders Hooser biggest problem with culling the votes of city dwellers may be name recognition alone.
Hooser’s biggest obstacle is probably that not many outside Kaua`i know the answer to the question “Who is Gary Hooser/” although as Senate Majority Leader many who follow politics know not just his name but his reputation as a well-liked progressive legislator who’s not afraid to stand up for his constituents and to the special interests, even within his own party.
Abercrombie seems a shoo-in for the Democratic gubernatorial nominee and therefore governor at this point.
Hanabusa has a disproportionate and distorted image of her popularity outside her district and is blamed for quite a few fiascos and capitulations to special interests as Senate President.
And Case is a perennial primary loser known as a “DINO”- Democrat in Name Only- which may put him out of the running should he go up against Abercrombie, Hamabusa or Hannamann in a state-wide Democratic primary.
Maize Hirono, the current 2nd CD representative, like Case is from Honolulu and won the seat with less than 25% of the vote in the wild non-partisan special election that followed Case’s resignation to run against Sen. Dan Akaka in ‘06. And she faced no real opposition in her reelection campaign this year.
While it’s doubtful Hooser would take on a sitting congresswoman in his own party it’s certainly not out of the question. Hooser originally won election to the state Senate by taking on a Democratic incumbent, Jonathan Chun, in 2002.
The question that must be asked now is whether Hirono might run for Abercrombie’s urban 1st CD – the district where she grew up and actually resides.
Should that happen Hooser’s attempt to let voters know “Who is Gary Hooser?” might, in hindsight be an appropriate move- one that could bring real neighbor island representation to U.S. Congress for the first time in a long time.
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